Advantageous Selection, Not Adverse

Selection effects sometimes push the observed relationship in the opposite direction of textbook adverse selection: people who buy more of a safety or insurance product can be the lower‑risk, higher‑care types. A taxi driver not wearing a seat belt illustrates the converse — a visible lack of coverage can indicate broader risk‑loving behavior, not simply a rational response to incentives. — This reframes how reporters, regulators, and firms should read observable choices (insurance purchases, safety compliance): those choices are ambiguous signals and can systematically invert expectations about underlying risk.