AI Triage for Research Studies

Large language models can be used to extract forecasting questions from pre‑registration documents and produce quantitative forecasts of experimental treatment effects. Those forecasts (when they are shown to be reliably better than naive baselines) could be used to triage which studies to fund, replicate, or scale, shifting scarce research and policy resources toward projects with high uncertainty and upside. — If credible, AI‑based forecasting could reshape research funding, replication priorities, and policy reliance on new results — altering incentives across academia, funders, and regulators.