Alarmist Punditry Inflates Civil‑War Risk

Alarmist claims of imminent civil conflict often rest on selective citations, partisan sources, and probabilistic extrapolations rather than broad, corroborated evidence. Those narratives performatively escalate public fear and can push governments toward securitized responses that are disproportionate to the underlying threat. — If unchecked, pundit‑driven panic reshapes security spending, policing priorities and political rhetoric, turning governance toward crisis management and amplifying polarization.