Approval Floors Can Collapse Over War

A leader’s presumed ‘floor’ of unconditional support can evaporate quickly when a foreign conflict contradicts that leader’s prior brand (for example, an anti‑interventionist suddenly seen as prosecuting a war). Measured shifts (Lakshya Jain’s 17% disapproval among 2024 voters) plus visible gaps in who will defend the leader show how fragile coalitions are when policy and pocketbook effects converge. — If true, this changes how campaigns and parties manage foreign policy risks and how quickly electoral coalitions can realign mid‑cycle.