Assess outcome spreads, not points

Under true (Knightian) uncertainty — e.g., an unfolding war or major supply‑chain shock — policymakers and commentators should report the distribution of plausible outcomes and the tail scenarios rather than a single central forecast. Emphasize how different outcomes would affect constituencies, and prioritize information about spread and extreme risks over a misleading average. — Shifting public and official attention from point forecasts to outcome spreads would change budgeting, contingency planning and political accountability by making uncertainty explicit and actionable.