Audit Juries for Welfare Aid

Use prediction markets to forecast whether a randomly selected jury of similar insurance customers would approve a claimant’s request a year later. If the market-implied approval is high, pay out now and only occasionally audit with the jury, lowering costs and limiting bureaucratic capture. Juries are drawn from people choosing their own coverage levels to align incentives. — This reframes welfare as market-audited insurance, potentially depoliticizing eligibility and improving targeting while preserving case-by-case nuance.