Automation Drains New‑Entrant Opportunities

Mechanization can shrink an occupation not primarily by firing current workers but by removing the pipeline of new entrants and apprentices; historical census evidence for Victorian bootmaking shows large net artisanal declines driven by young men who no longer entered the trade, even as incumbents stayed put and new jobs emerged elsewhere. This reframes technological unemployment as a problem of interrupted career entry and cohort replacement, not only of mass layoffs. — If true broadly, policy should focus more on preserving entry pathways, apprenticeships and transitions for new cohorts rather than only protecting incumbent jobs.