Autonomous Trucks Reshape Interstate Trade

A structural-gravity study projects that cost savings from widespread autonomous and semi-autonomous trucking substantially increase US interstate trade, with effects varying widely by state (e.g., projected impacts range from ~40% of GDP in Mississippi to ~6% in Florida) and concentrating in sectors like motorized vehicles, mixed freight and electronics. The biggest relative gains accrue to goods with low value-to-weight ratios where shipping costs are a large share of delivered value. — If realized, these shifts will reallocate economic activity across states and industries, altering labor demand, infrastructure needs, and state-level political economy around permitting, taxation and workforce policy.