Public‑office holders, their immediate staff, and contractors should be explicitly barred from placing wagers or using prediction markets on outcomes tied to nonpublic state operations (military, covert law‑enforcement, classified diplomatic actions). The prohibition should include disclosure rules for family accounts and a fast reporting pathway for suspicious large trades tied to government actions.
— Removing the ability of insiders to profit from nonpublic operational knowledge protects public trust, prevents corruption, and closes a new angle of informational arbitrage enabled by prediction markets.
PW Daily
2026.01.06
100% relevant
Polymarket account that bet ~$32k on Maduro being 'out' and converted to a >$400k payoff after the reported U.S. operation; subsequent House bill to criminalize such betting is direct evidence of the gap.
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