Base Evaporation After Overreach

When a highly personalized, norm‑breaking leader pursues aggressive foreign and domestic actions, previously reliable base turnout can collapse rather than merely swing; the decisive electoral effect is often driven more by base withdrawal or demobilization than by persuading undecided voters. This shifts how campaigns should assess risk: survival of the base is a distinct strategic variable from persuading swing voters. — If true, this reframes campaign strategy, poll interpretation, and accountability: parties must measure and prevent base demobilization as a core risk rather than assume base loyalty.