Base‑rate nutpicking manufactures outrage

Updated: 2025.09.23 29D ago 1 sources
In a very large population, even a tiny share of bad actors yields a huge absolute count of ugly posts. Politicians and media can cherry‑pick these to claim a 'wave' of celebration or hate that isn’t representative. Understanding base rates helps audiences discount spectacle built from a sliver of the public. — This reframes viral outrage cycles by showing how large‑N arithmetic can be weaponized to mislead about public sentiment.

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Against assassinating Nazis
Matthew Yglesias 2025.09.23 100% relevant
The article’s example that 0.1% of 340 million people still produces 'hundreds of thousands' of inflammatory posts, plus bots/foreigners, creating a false specter.
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