Belligerence Invites Isolation and Intervention

When an authoritarian regime repeatedly uses cross‑border threats, annexations, or proxies, it drives away regional allies and reduces external patrons’ willingness to defend it; that isolation raises the probability of foreign intervention, occupation claims, or regime displacement. The dynamic links territorial adventurism (annexation, militia support) to a measurable erosion in diplomatic cover and access to bailout resources. — If generalizable, it reframes how analysts should evaluate intervention risk: not only external intent but a regime’s own foreign aggressions determine vulnerability to outside force.