Below‑40% Pensions Trigger Triage

Updated: 2025.10.16 6D ago 2 sources
Actuaries reportedly treat funded ratios under 40% as a 'point of no return,' suggesting an objective threshold for automatic intervention. Cities crossing it could face mandatory control boards, restructuring plans, or bankruptcy access before collapse. — A clear trigger would depoliticize rescue timing and reduce bailout risk by enforcing early, rule-based interventions.

Sources

Another Huge Union Payout Will Hasten Chicago’s Demise
Aaron M. Renn 2025.10.16 74% relevant
Chicago’s CFO warning that the police and fire funds will be 'technically insolvent'—under 20% funded—connects directly to the notion of actionable funding thresholds that should trigger automatic interventions before collapse.
Chicago Is on the Verge of Fiscal Collapse
Austin Berg 2025.08.25 100% relevant
Chicago police and fire pensions are said to fall to an 18% funded ratio after new sweeteners.
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