David Betz, a King’s College London professor of war, argues that retribalization, mass migration, and elite overreach make civil disturbances in the West more likely than not within five years. He claims perceived 'managed democracy'—rule‑rigging by courts, media, and security services—has convinced many that voting no longer matters, priming unrest.
— A quantified, near‑term civil conflict forecast from a mainstream defense scholar raises the stakes for immigration, policing, and constitutional norms planning.
2025.10.07
84% relevant
The article directly challenges David Betz’s high-probability civil-war calculations and his cascade argument, noting his evidence base is largely right‑wing political warnings and accusing him of statistical legerdemain that inflates risk.
2025.10.07
90% relevant
This essay by David Betz (King’s College London) advances the same core claim: internal instability will likely produce civil conflict in Western states soon, challenging mainstream strategic literature and urging planners to treat domestic unrest as the primary threat.
2025.10.05
90% relevant
The episode features David Betz expanding on his 'Civil War Comes to the West' thesis, forecasting a plausible UK civil conflict within five years and detailing mechanisms (retribalization, rural–urban divides, institutional errors) that map directly onto the existing idea’s claim of elevated near‑term risk.
Jacob Howland
2025.09.21
100% relevant
Betz on the Brussels Horizon podcast: 'chances of civil war in the West… exceed 50 percent' within five years, beginning with peasant‑revolt‑style disturbances.
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