Big Minimum‑Wage Hikes Raise Prices

Evidence from California’s $20 fast‑food minimum wage shows large, concentrated wage mandates primarily raise consumer prices (food away from home up ~3.3–3.6%), which then reduces demand and accounts for much of the observed job losses (~3% employment decline). The policy therefore shifts income from a broad consumer base to employed workers in the sector, and can be regressive because poorer households spend a larger share on fast food while some low‑wage workers lose jobs. — Implies that scaling small minimum‑wage experiments up has non‑linear, distributional effects—important for voters, lawmakers, and advocates debating large wage floors.