Billionaire tax can lose money

A one‑time wealth tax aimed at billionaires can collect far less than official projections once migration, legal risk, and behavioral responses are included, and the present value of lost ongoing taxes (for example, state income taxes) from departures can exceed the headline take. The Jaros & Rauh NBER paper uses Forbes data, reported real‑estate stakes, and simulations to estimate ~$30B collected versus a $100B projection and a net present value loss of roughly $39B in a majority of modeled scenarios. — If true, state wealth‑tax proposals have fiscal and political consequences beyond redistribution: they can shrink the tax base and worsen state finances, altering debates over progressive taxation, mobility, and state competitiveness.