Black‑turnout parity reshapes Senate path

If Black turnout in lower‑profile Senate contests rises to presidential‑level participation, previously safe Republican seats (for example, South Carolina) can become competitive or flip. That single demographic turnout swing can alter the arithmetic of control in a closely divided Senate even without large shifts among other groups. — Makes clear that turnout composition — not just persuasion or national swings — can be the decisive variable for Senate majorities, shifting campaign strategy, resource allocation, and media narratives.