When a civilization or institution rises and then declines, retrospective blame concentrates on actors present at the inflection point where growth turns to decline. Hanson’s polls show most people pick the immediate peak/early‑fall period as the moment of greatest culpability.
— This predicts a durable narrative dynamic: present‑day policymakers and publics will be judged primarily for actions or inactions near any future turning point, shaping incentives for risk mitigation, signaling, and political hedging.
Robin Hanson
2025.12.30
100% relevant
Robin Hanson’s two polls (4‑part and 5‑part period splits) reporting 52%–61% of respondents attributing blame to the onset/peak period, plus his note that many readers under 50 could live into that era.
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