Annual benchmark revisions can flip the labor-market narrative: the Bureau of Labor Statistics just cut the prior year’s job gains by 911,000—about 76,000 per month. That means policymakers and markets were operating for months on overstated employment growth. Real‑time payroll data are provisional and can mask turning points until revisions surface.
— If headline jobs numbers can be this wrong for a year, monetary and fiscal debates must bake in revision risk and be more cautious about month‑to‑month narratives.
Tyler Cowen
2025.09.29
50% relevant
Both pieces argue that headline macro indicators can mislead: the BLS revisions showed job growth overstated, and Skousen’s Gross Output points to weak underlying activity despite strong GDP. Together they suggest policymakers should watch alternative measures before declaring strength.
msmash
2025.09.16
86% relevant
The article centers on the BLS’s annual benchmark showing 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported and attributes outsized revisions to low response rates, reinforcing the existing idea’s call to treat real‑time jobs prints cautiously and to expect sizable backward corrections.
msmash
2025.09.09
100% relevant
BLS revised April 2024–March 2025 payrolls down by 911,000 and reported August job growth of only 22,000, with June revised to a 13,000 loss.