Blue Counties’ Bigger Homicide Surge

Analyzing CDC county data, the authors find that homicide rose for almost everyone in 2020 but increased more in Democratic‑leaning counties than in GOP‑leaning ones when comparing within counties over time. They also detect no significant relationship between homicide growth and either COVID‑19 deaths or per‑capita gun sales. — This challenges pandemic‑or‑guns explanations and suggests local political culture or governance differences may have influenced the scale of the 2020 violence spike.