Bombing Closes Iran’s Reform Window

Sustained external air campaigns can eliminate internal political reform prospects by turning military institutions into the defenders of national sovereignty, thereby empowering hardliners and sidelining moderate or reformist actors. In Iran’s case, the U.S.–Israel strikes, the article argues, have strengthened the IRGC and made a peaceful, internal transition to a non‑theocratic government far less likely. — If true, this reframes how policymakers should weigh the domestic political effects of limited kinetic operations: strikes intended to degrade capabilities may instead cement authoritarian militaries and prolong instability with global economic costs.