Booms Signal Volatility, Not Inevitable Bubbles

A long‑run empirical study extending industry‑level work through 2024 finds that episodes of large market gains seldom reverse fully (true 'bubbles' are rare), but they do reliably precede higher volatility and hence a greater chance of both big gains and big losses. That means a boom should be treated as a sign of increased market variance, not a deterministic crash signal. — If accepted, this shifts policy and investor talk away from alarmist bubble narratives toward targeted risk‑management and volatility monitoring during booms.