Brain as Bayesian Risk Estimator

The brain estimates and updates risk using Bayes‑like priors; exposure therapy works because repeated safe experience corrects overly pessimistic priors. Framing compulsions, panic and ritualistic avoidance as failures of prior calibration explains why confronting feared states produces durable change. — This framing reframes clinical treatment, public health messaging, and cultural debates about avoidance (e.g., trigger warnings, safetyism) in terms of probabilistic learning and evolutionary adaptation.