California Fast-Food Wage Cut Jobs

A new analysis using California’s fast-food minimum wage as a natural experiment estimates a 3% employment decline, or about 18,000 jobs lost, relative to the rest of the U.S. This offers a sector-specific, quasi-experimental test in a high-profile policy case. It sharpens the minimum-wage debate beyond slogans by quantifying the tradeoff in one of the largest state economies. — It informs nationwide wage-floor policy by providing concrete evidence that sectoral minimums can impose measurable employment costs.

Sources

The weight of research opinion against minimum wage hikes continues to shift

Tyler Cowen 2025.09.17 50% relevant

Both pieces use quasi‑experimental evidence to identify concrete costs of higher wage floors; this article extends the conversation from employment effects to reduced corporate investment following state minimum‑wage hikes.

Denver’s restaurants are dying

Halina Bennet 2025.09.01 70% relevant

Like the sectoral minimum wage case in California, the piece ties a specific wage-policy design (Denver’s high minimum and low tip credit) to employment declines and closures in a targeted slice of the service economy (independent full‑service dining), citing BLS figures (~200 closures; 2,700 job deficit) and operator testimony.

Round-up: When did Europeans become light-skinned?

Aporia 2025.08.20 100% relevant

Jeffrey Clemens and colleagues’ finding of a 3% employment drop (~18,000 jobs) after California’s fast-food minimum wage.