Capture‑driven partisan shift

When a government conducts a dramatic capture or raid, partisan cues can quickly flip baseline opinion in the aggressor’s coalition — Republicans in this poll shifted toward intervention after Maduro’s capture — even while the broader public remains divided and skeptical about legality and long‑run outcomes. The effect is asymmetric (elite coalition moves more than the median public) and conditional on perceived legitimacy and messaging about authorization. — This matters because it shows that dramatic operations can temporarily mobilize a leader’s base and reduce intra‑coalition resistance while leaving broader democratic constraints (demand for congressional authorization, rule‑of‑law concerns) intact.