Career‑success prediction markets

Create markets that estimate a manager’s total future career success conditional on choices (hiring, policy, acquisitions) and use those market estimates as advisory signals for what the manager should do. To prevent sabotage, give actors who could harm the manager a required positive stake in that manager’s success, making their incentives partly aligned and visible. — If implemented, these markets would recast corporate governance by making managerial power visible, tradable, and optimizable—potentially changing how firms are run, how investors exert influence, and how internal political strategies are formed.