Certificate Pivot in College Enrollment

National Student Clearinghouse data show certificate and associate enrollment is growing faster than bachelor’s enrollment, with community‑college certificate enrollments up ~28% over four years and undergraduate certificate/associate programs rising ~2% in fall 2025. Two policy drivers called out are large price differentials (typical two‑year public tuition ≈ $4,150 vs four‑year public in‑state ≈ $11,950) and expanded Pell eligibility for job‑aligned certificate programs. — A durable shift toward certificates and community college changes the politics of higher education, workforce development, student‑loan finance, and the public case for federal aid and college‑credentialing reform.