Splitting childhood shows different levers: early child mortality (0–5) and school‑age life expectancy (6–18) each predict lower completed fertility, but through distinct channels. In adulthood (18–45), the signs flip for mortality (replacement/insurance) and GDP (pro‑cyclical), while life expectancy stays negatively linked to fertility.
— Pinpointing when and how safety and prosperity shape fertility helps policymakers target education, health, and family policy to the stages that actually move long‑run demographics.
Davide Piffer
2025.08.28
100% relevant
Piffer’s within‑country Mundlak models that separately average exposures at ages 0–5, 6–18, and 18–45 show life expectancy effects concentrated in school years and child‑mortality effects concentrated in early childhood, with adult‑period flips.
Davide Piffer
2025.08.28
95% relevant
Piffer’s within–between Mundlak models split childhood into 0–5 and 6–18 and add an 18–45 adult window, finding early child mortality (0–5) and school‑age life expectancy (6–18) predict lower completed fertility, while in adulthood mortality and GDP flip sign (replacement and pro‑cyclical effects) and life expectancy stays negative—exactly the staged pattern this idea articulates.
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