China Crowds Out African Complexity

A formal model plus causal evidence shows that when foreign competition is fiercest in complex sectors, trade can nudge poorer countries toward simpler industries and slow capability growth. Using WTO accessions as an instrument, the authors find China’s rise pushed several African economies away from their most complex export niches into their least complex ones. — This reframes trade and development by implying Africa may need industrial policy or diversification to avoid being locked into low‑complexity roles by China’s export dominance.