Yao Yang maps China’s post‑2018 slump to a 20‑year 'correction' phase that will last until 2037. He links today’s woes to a property‑led wealth shock, underpowered consumption, and unusually low tax take, arguing for property taxes and large central bond issuance to stabilize local finances.
— A dated, cycle-based forecast from a prominent insider resets expectations for China’s growth, fiscal choices, and external behavior through the 2030s.
Thomas des Garets Geddes
2025.09.26
100% relevant
Yao’s line: “So, my prediction: when will this period of correction end? In 2037,” plus prescriptions to lift tax revenue (~14% of GDP) via property tax and central government bonds.
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