Class politics beats culture wars

Electoral coalitions can be remade by redistributive grievances when economic institutions protect asset‑owners; culture‑war frames matter, but mass voters often respond to material class conditions that reshape turnout and cross‑party switches. Lula’s late surge — overturning a first‑round deficit and defeating a Bolsonaro heir — is presented as a case where class grievances over bailouts, austerity and asset protection overcame right‑wing cultural mobilization. — If true, parties that ignore redistribution and asset‑price politics risk being displaced even when they 'win' cultural arguments, altering campaign strategy and policy priorities across democracies.