Extreme weather and climate damage are not just a transient shock to prices but a structural upward shift in underlying inflation rates, because they increase the frequency of capital‑destroying events, raise insurance and rebuilding costs, and reconfigure supply chains in ways that push core inflation above historic targets. If true, central banks' 'return to target' assumptions are systematically biased and fiscal plans that rely on low inflation will be persistently under strain.
— This reframes inflation debates from a cyclical/monetary problem to a structural, climate‑and‑supply‑chain problem with implications for central bank strategy, fiscal planning and political accountability.
John Rapley
2026.11.05
100% relevant
The article cites the OBR's raised inflation forecasts, persistent above‑target core inflation across advanced economies, and the role of extreme weather and infrastructure damage as the concrete elements supporting the claim.
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