Climate‑to‑GDP Link Is Empirically Weak

A new paper highlighted by Tyler Cowen argues that macroeconomic transmission from climate shocks into measured GDP is not robust across datasets and methods. That suggests the commonly used pathways in integrated assessment and policy models may overstate or mischaracterize economic damages from climate change. — If true, this changes cost‑benefit calculations that underpin climate policy, funding priorities, and public messaging about urgency and the scale of economic risk.