Coercive Redundancy Prevents Revolutions

Updated: 2026.01.14 14D ago 1 sources
When a regime build(s) overlapping, ideologically vetted coercive institutions (elite guards, paramilitaries, intelligence networks) whose members’ livelihoods and social status are tied to the system, mass protest alone cannot produce rapid regime collapse. Redundant command chains and socialized loyalty create a structural barrier to defections that historically tipped revolutions. — This reframes popular '1979' analogies and constrains calls for external intervention or rapid change by showing the hard limits of protest‑driven revolution in modern theocratic/authoritarian states.

Sources

Iran Won't Repeat 1979
Saeid Golkar 2026.01.14 100% relevant
Golkar’s article cites Khamenei’s control, the IRGC, Basij, ideological vetting and patronage as concrete elements that exemplify coercive redundancy.
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