Coins Reveal Early Atlantic Wealth Shift

Using hundreds of thousands of ancient coin finds and a diffusion model, the new NBER paper reconstructs regional trade and consumption from the 4th–10th centuries and finds Mediterranean trade weakening from the 5th century, an 8th‑century peak in the Middle East, and Atlantic regions (from Islamic Spain to Frankish northwestern Europe) richest by the late 9th century. The result rests on granular, spatially distributed numismatic data rather than traditional textual narratives. — This reframes when and where economic power shifted in post‑Roman Eurasia, altering long‑running stories about the origins of European economic ascendancy and the economic strength of early Islamic regions.