Colonial archives reveal centuries of El Niño

Historical documents — in this case a 1578 survey by Francisco de Alcocer translated by University of Maine researchers — extend the empirical El Niño record centuries earlier than many instrumental datasets and show how extreme Pacific warming repeatedly produced catastrophic crop failure, plague, and social disruption under colonial regimes. The article links that long record to modern risk: a possible imminent ‘super El Niño’ that could drive global extremes and very high 2027 temperatures. — Expanding the climate record with archival evidence reframes risk assessment, preparedness, and historical responsibility — it changes what counts as evidence for extreme‑event attribution, societal vulnerability, and adaptation policy.