Consult historians before waging war

Policymakers should routinely incorporate 'applied history' analysis into decisions about military escalation to surface recurring mistakes — for example, how attacks on maritime chokepoints (like the Strait of Hormuz) cascade into global economic and political turmoil. Historical case studies (Gallipoli, Black Sea grain flows) reveal predictable second‑order effects that modern techno-optimism and AI‑centric thinking can obscure. — If institutionalized, this practice could reduce strategic surprise, avoid preventable economic shocks, and change public expectations about the costs of military action.