Controlled passage equilibrium

The Strait of Hormuz can shift from 'free navigation' to a durable state of 'controlled passage' — a semi‑regulated, politically screened mode where transit continues but under high uncertainty, selective access, and de facto tolling. This is not a temporary disruption but a new operational regime with persistent economic and legal effects. — If true, states must treat chokepoints as ongoing governance problems (not episodic crises), changing naval posture, trade contracting, and regional diplomacy.