Coordinated polling misses flip races

Even small, correlated directional errors across multiple state polls can change the outcome of close elections; models that aggregate polls must explicitly model the chance that many polls err in the same direction, not just independent sampling error. Recognizing and quantifying that coordinated miss risk should change how media and campaigns treat single‑state polling snapshots. — If forecasters and journalists underappreciate correlated polling bias, the public and campaigns will misread how much confidence to place in projected upsets or holdovers, affecting turnout, strategy, and legitimacy perceptions.