Core‑voter defections as early warning

A measurable decline in approval among an incumbent's own recent voters (here: Trump 2024 voters dropping from 93% to 76% approval) functions as an early signal that the governing coalition is fraying and that political vulnerabilities — turnout drops, primary challenges, or fundraising shortfalls — may follow quickly. Tracking percent‑point shifts inside the base over short windows can forecast near‑term electoral risk better than overall approval alone. — If base defections are tracked in real time, parties, campaigns, and journalists get an early, actionable indicator of midterm and governing fragility.