Count trade gains in immigration math

Updated: 2026.10.20 3H ago 1 sources
When assessing immigration’s fiscal impact, models should jointly simulate labor‑market responses and public‑budget effects and explicitly include gains from trade, market‑size increases, and scale/innovation effects—because those channels can overturn apparent fiscal costs. A calibrated general‑equilibrium approach across 17 OECD countries finds native welfare rises in most cases for recent skill mixes. — This reframes immigration debates: fiscal accounting that omits trade and scale effects gives an incomplete (and often misleading) picture of who wins and loses from migration.

Sources

The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade
Tyler Cowen 2026.10.20 100% relevant
New NBER working paper by Michele Battisti, Giovanni Peri & Eleonora Romano (calibrated to 17 OECD countries, 2015–2019), highlighted on Tyler Cowen’s Marginal Revolution blog.
← Back to all ideas