Courts Decide Mid‑Decade Redistricting

Legal rulings and state-court procedures are increasingly the decisive factor in whether mid-decade redistricting plans stand or are thrown out, meaning judges — not just legislatures or ballot referenda — can swing seat projections by several percentage points. Recent examples include the Supreme Court's Callais decision weakening Voting Rights Act protections and the Virginia Supreme Court invalidating a voter-approved referendum, which together materially changed November House expectations. — If courts are the primary arbiter of mid-decade maps, electoral strategy, campaign resource allocation, and state judicial fights become central to who controls legislatures and Congress.