City and national homicide counts fell notably in 2025 (local headlines plus CDC WONDER weekly counts through June 14, 2025). A plausible hypothesis is that a rollback or normalization of high‑profile de‑policing stances and a subsequent restoration of law‑enforcement norms can produce rapid reductions in lethal violence; this must be tested with city‑level policing, arrest, incarceration, and socio‑economic controls.
— If validated, the pattern links elite political signals and policing policy to short‑run lethal‑violence outcomes, changing how governments weigh protest‑response, criminal‑justice reform, and public safety messaging.
2026.01.05
60% relevant
Because the post stresses temporal patterns and the non‑monotonicity of homicide rates, it is directly relevant to hypotheses that link policing practice changes to year‑to‑year homicide swings; the descriptive facts the article compiles are the starting data needed to evaluate claims about policing normalization reducing violence.
Steve Sailer
2026.01.03
100% relevant
Local newspaper headlines documenting 2025 lows and CDC WONDER weekly homicide counts (data through June 14, 2025) cited in the article.
Steve Sailer
2025.12.31
90% relevant
The article’s core claim — that Baltimore’s murder rate has fallen back toward pre‑revolt levels — directly echoes the idea that restoring routine policing and institutional norms can reduce violence; the author cites Freddie Gray (Apr 27, 2015) as the start of the spike and interprets recent homicide statistics as a reversal.
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