D.C.’s 97x Homicide Risk Gap

Updated: 2025.09.01 1M ago 6 sources
Over seven years, 1,241 black D.C. residents were homicide victims compared to 11 whites, implying a 97-to-1 per-capita risk gap. This shows crime is hyper-concentrated by group, so citywide ‘crime up/down’ talk can hide who bears the danger and who benefits from crackdowns. — It shifts crime policy discussions toward distribution of victimization and the equity implications of enforcement choices.

Sources

How well informed are NYT readers?
Steve Sailer 2025.09.01 68% relevant
By alleging the NYT avoids the phrase 'black homicide rate,' the article points to why stark group-specific risk facts—like the 97-to-1 D.C. homicide victimization gap—rarely enter mainstream coverage, obscuring who bears crime risk and how policy tradeoffs affect them.
D.C. needs real policing, not propaganda
Matthew Yglesias 2025.08.20 60% relevant
By urging accurate rather than sensational crime talk and noting D.C. is far more dangerous than other 'Discourse Cities,' the article complements the idea that citywide narratives obscure how danger is distributed and who bears it in D.C.
When politics isn’t local
Lorenzo Warby 2025.08.19 75% relevant
The article argues crime is a power‑law phenomenon concentrated among a small minority and varies sharply by place; this complements the D.C. victimization gap showing extreme, localized risk concentration that politicians may misread.
Blacks are 97x As Likely to Be Murdered in D.C.
Steve Sailer 2025.08.13 100% relevant
“Since 2018, D.C. blacks have died by homicide 97 times more often per capita than D.C. whites…1,241 black…compared to 11 white.”
D.C. Follies
Steve Sailer 2025.08.13 98% relevant
The article repeats the exact finding—1,241 black vs. 11 white homicide victims in 2018–2024—implying a 97:1 per‑capita risk gap for blacks versus whites in D.C.
How many are criminals?
Inquisitive Bird 2025.08.11 50% relevant
Both pieces highlight extreme concentration of criminal justice exposure in specific groups. The article’s lifetime imprisonment figures by race mirror the idea’s emphasis on uneven risk distribution, shifting focus from aggregate crime talk to who bears the burden.
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