Death‑lag models misattribute effects

Models that infer past transmission by back‑calculating from deaths (with fixed fatality rates and immediate step changes for interventions) can over‑attribute declines in transmission to formal policies rather than to voluntary behaviour, reporting artifacts, or gradual changes. That methodological bias matters because it can make lockdowns appear uniquely decisive when the real causal story is more complex. — This changes how policymakers, journalists, and courts should treat high‑impact modeling claims used to justify major restrictions and retrospective assessments.