Treat sovereign indebtedness not only as a debt‑to‑GDP flow problem but as a stock problem relative to national wealth and asset liquidity. Assessing fiscal risk should incorporate debt’s hedge properties (covariance with growth), wealth composition, and the timing asymmetry that makes public debt a poor cushion in downturns.
— Shifting debate from debt/GDP to debt/wealth and asset covariances changes what counts as sustainable borrowing and how markets should price sovereign risk.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.06
90% relevant
Berk & van Binsbergen’s finding—that debt/GDP can diverge from interest‑to‑GDP and debt‑to‑equity trends—connects directly to the existing idea that GDP‑scaled debt is often the wrong numeraire and that assessments should consider alternative denominators (wealth, prices, interest burdens). Cowen’s post amplifies that methodological critique.
2026.01.05
62% relevant
The article's narrative about credit expansion, securitization and the buildup of contingent liabilities (Fannie/Freddie losses and broader financial fragility) connects directly to the notion that debt dynamics relative to national wealth and fiscal capacity are a decisive dimension of systemic risk.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.12.03
100% relevant
Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok cite Hanno Lustig’s 'US Public Debt Valuation Puzzle' and discuss the idea that debt pays off in good times and expands in bad times, and that comparing debt to national wealth (not just GDP) yields a different risk picture.