Removing a regime's leaders by military strike does not create the institutions (courts, police, monopoly of force) needed for a functioning state; without a credible plan to build or back a viable successor authority, strikes are likely to provoke retaliation, strengthen entrenched militaries or militias, and produce long‑term instability. Fukuyama uses the Feb 28 U.S. strike on Iran and the subsequent missile/drones retaliation, allied economic disruption, and rise in gasoline prices to illustrate this failure.
— Reorients debate from 'can we remove bad regimes' to 'what capacity and political plan is required to replace them,' with implications for use of force, alliance commitments, and domestic political costs.
Francis Fukuyama
2026.03.12
100% relevant
The article's account of Trump's Feb 28 decapitation strike on Iran, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses and regional economic disruption, is the concrete event that exemplifies the idea.
← Back to All Ideas