Decision Markets Enter Trials

Prediction markets that estimate outcomes conditional on specific choices (decision markets or 'futarchy' for governance) are moving from academic proposal to concrete experiments in organizations. Hanson reports his long‑standing advocacy and says that, after decades of theoretical work and practical resistance, some trials have begun in the last few years. — If decision markets scale, they could reconfigure how organizations and governments make high‑stakes decisions by substituting market‑based outcome forecasts for much current political bargaining.