Decoupling Sends Manufacturing South

U.S. policy mix (tariffs, export controls, and targeted subsidies/equity) is producing a gradual but measurable shift of supply chains out of China toward Mexico and Southeast Asia rather than wholesale onshoring to the U.S. This is a policy‑driven reconfiguration of trade geography, not an immediate reshoring boom. — If sustained, the shift alters U.S. industrial strategy, domestic job politics, and geopolitical leverage by rerouting value chains to third countries rather than rebuilding domestic manufacturing at scale.