Defeat Spike After Rome’s Western Fall

Using a newly compiled catalogue of 1,709 named land and sea battles, the article shows defeats constitute roughly a quarter of recorded outcomes before 476 but slightly more than half after 476. This suggests a structural shift in military fortunes coincident with the conventional date for the Western Empire’s end, complicating simple continuity narratives that treat the Eastern court as an unbroken Roman success story. — If institutional change — not merely continuity of name or claim — drives military performance, then debates about state collapse, legitimacy and resilience (ancient or modern) need empirical battle‑level measures rather than elegiac storytelling.